2023 Southeast Montana big game hunting forecast

Conditions in much of southeast Montana are considerably better than previous years at this time, when the landscape was ravaged by drought. Abundant spring/summer rainfall this year has resulted in rapid recovery of range plants, but abundant vegetation also means increased fire danger as grass dries out.

Elk

The Missouri Breaks (HD 700) and Custer Forest Elk Management Unit (HDs 702, 704, 705) remain the two core elk populations in southeast Montana. Outside of these areas, elk numbers are generally low, but numbers have been increasing at a moderate rate, accompanied by a gradual expansion into previously unoccupied habitat.

FWP biologists typically observe strong calf recruitment and an excellent composition of bulls.

Branch-antlered bull hunting is by permit only in HDs 700, 702, 704, 705 and the far southwestern portion of HD 701. But even if you didn’t draw a special permit this year, Region 7 offers opportunities to hunt elk with a general license. The general elk license is valid for spike bull or antlerless elk in HDs 702, 704 and 705 (but not valid on the Custer National Forest during the general rifle season).

Allowing spike bulls to be harvested increases opportunity for hunters and prevents accidental violations if spikes are mistaken for antlerless elk. While providing additional opportunity on a general elk license, spike bull harvest remains a small portion of the overall bull harvest and has not shown to have a measurable impact on the ratio of bulls to cows.

In HD 703 and the eastern three-quarters of HD 701, hunters can pursue any elk with a general license. However, hunters should be aware that elk are scarce in these districts; often highly transient or occurring in small, isolated pockets; and primarily found on private land. Hunter harvest surveys from 2022 suggest an estimated elk harvest of 73 in HD 703 and 94 in HD 701. Compare that to approximately 1,665 and 1,375 mule deer harvested in those districts, respectively. Hunter surveys indicate 498 elk taken in HD 700 and about 746 in the Custer Forest Elk Management Unit (HDs 702, 704 and 705).

HD 700 is surveyed biennially and was last surveyed in late December 2021, with excellent survey conditions and exceptional observability of the elk. In total, 1,379 elk were counted in the HD with a bull ratio of 28 bulls per 100 cows, and a calf ratio of 54 calves to 100 cows. These ratios are higher than those from the previous survey (15 bulls per 100 cows and 41 calves per 100 cows), but this is likely due to the exceptionally good survey conditions. Hunters should expect elk distribution to be similar to 2022.

Although the drought conditions the region experienced from 2020 through 2022 have passed and ample moisture has been experienced throughout the region this year, the effect of drought conditions on southeastern Montana deer populations remains apparent and will for a while until a few years of more favorable weather allows habitat conditions to improve. That will result in increased production and survival of mule deer.

Mule deer

Numbers observed this year on the 14 spring trend areas were approximately 6 percent below 2022 and 48 percent below the long-term average. Drought conditions reduced the quantity and quality of forage available to deer during spring and summer 2022.

The recruitment rate for mule deer fawns this spring saw a slight increase from 2022 observations but was below average at 48 fawns per 100 adults, also a result of the drought. Nutritionally stressed does don’t produce as much milk for growing fawns, and many fawns didn’t gain enough weight their first summer to make it through the winter months.

In response to population declines, biologists in southeast Montana again reduced antlerless quotas, offering just 1,000 antlerless mule deer licenses for the 2023 season. Historically, these licenses had been selling out by the third week of the season, but this year all were awarded during the drawing with none left for the surplus list. Hunters will be unable to purchase additional antlerless mule deer licenses during the general rifle season this fall. Additionally, the Fish and Wildlife Commission approved changes to the general deer license in all Region 7 hunting districts that will shift licenses from either-sex mule deer to antlered buck mule deer only for the 2023 hunting season.

From about 2012-2020, mule deer numbers had been increasing in southeast Montana, a result of mild winters and good spring/summer moisture. The good news for hunters is that each good year for deer production and survival equals a solid year-class recruited into the population, so Region 7 currently has a good dispersion of age classes with a mix of young, middle-age and older animals. Buck-to-doe ratios remain good, averaging 33 bucks per 100 does in the region.

While, as a whole, mule deer numbers are down this year in Region 7, it is important to note that there are areas where numbers are strong. Some areas of the west-central and northeastern portions of the region may have better concentrations, whereas the southern third (which experienced severe drought in 2020 as well) and northwestern portion of the region were hit hardest.

White-tailed deer

Numbers remain variable depending on the area of the region. Drought in recent years led to epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) outbreaks in many parts of the region. Most southeastern Montana counties experienced localized die-offs. The Yellowstone River corridor in southern Richland County experienced a more widespread outbreak, but, nevertheless, whitetail numbers remain good through much of the area. Northern Carter and southern Fallon counties were particularly hard hit by EHD in 2021, with a widespread outbreak that resulted in significant mortality. Whitetail numbers in this area are expected to take a couple of years to recover. Additionally, EHD impacted whitetails along the Powder River.

Overall, whitetail numbers observed on spring trend areas averaged 24 percent below 2021 numbers but 9 percent above long-term average. Buck harvest was 3 percent above long-term average last fall. Similar to mule deer, whitetail fawn recruitment this spring was below average at 44 fawns per 100 adults.

Region 7 has changed the way antlerless whitetail licenses are allocated as part of a statewide effort to simplify hunting regulations. Antlerless whitetail licenses will now be allocated similar to antlerless mule deer licenses. Biologists will set quotas on an annual basis; the licenses will first be available through the drawing process (deadline is June 1 each year). Any surplus licenses first will be distributed through the surplus list (the deadline to sign up was July 20, 2023), and finally, if leftover licenses remain, they will be sold over the counter on a first-come, first-served basis, which began Aug. 7.

Pronghorn

Populations in southeast Montana are similar to 2022 numbers and are 17 percent above the 10-year average. While the buck to doe ratio is below average, the overall number of bucks observed is 2 percent above the 10-year average.

With a healthy total number of bucks observed, Region 7 biologists maintained the number of regionwide, 007-20 either-sex licenses. The second opportunity 799-30 doe/fawn license, valid only in HDs 704 and 705, remained the same as 2022 due to strong populations across much of those districts. This license will be sold over the counter on a first-come, first-served basis, one per hunter, and is only available to those who hold a valid 007-20 and/or 007-30 pronghorn license.

Survey efforts indicate that pronghorn numbers are strongest in the southeastern portion of Region 7 and are not as robust in the northwestern portion of the region. Through public outreach and the 799-30 additional doe/fawn license (which is valid only in HDs 704 and 705), regional staff will encourage hunters to take advantage of the flexibility available to them via the regionwide licenses and focus their efforts in areas where pronghorn numbers are more robust (which will also relieve pressure where local populations are struggling).